NASDAQ Composite — Tech & Growth Recession Indicator
Track the NASDAQ Composite index. Tech-heavy and growth-oriented, NASDAQ is highly sensitive to interest rates and often leads economic cycle turns.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >20% drawdown from peak = bear market
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's NASDAQ Composite value is 22,668, which has been on a downward trend since peaking at 23,958 on October 29, 2025, reflecting a decline of approximately 5.4% over the past four months. The index has shown signs of stabilization recently, fluctuating between 22,627 and 23,152 in the last week, but remains well above the bear market threshold of a 20% drawdown from its peak. This trend suggests a moderate recession risk, as the index's decline indicates weakening investor sentiment, though the current value is still relatively safe and near recent highs. The lack of a significant rebound following the recent lows suggests caution moving forward, as sustained weakness could heighten recession concerns.
What is the NASDAQ?
The NASDAQ Composite is a market-capitalization weighted index of over 3,000 stocks listed on the NASDAQ exchange, heavily weighted toward technology and growth companies.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
NASDAQ is hyper-sensitive to interest rate expectations and risk appetite. Tech and growth stock selloffs often precede broader economic weakness as they signal reduced future growth expectations.
Historical Context
NASDAQ fell 78% during the dot-com bust (2000-2002), 56% during 2008, and 33% in 2022. Its recovery speed often signals the market's growth outlook.
Related Indicators
Sahm Rule
Track the Sahm Rule in real time. Current value, historical chart, and AI analysis. The Sahm Rule has correctly signaled every US recession since 1970.
Yield Curve 2s10s
Monitor the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve spread in real time. Yield curve inversions have preceded every US recession since 1955.
Yield Curve 2s30s
Track the 2-year/30-year Treasury yield curve spread. A wider view of the term structure that signals long-term economic expectations.
Get Daily NASDAQ Alerts
Receive SMS and email alerts when this indicator changes status. Stay ahead of the market.