NASDAQ Composite — Tech & Growth Recession Indicator
Track the NASDAQ Composite index. Tech-heavy and growth-oriented, NASDAQ is highly sensitive to interest rates and often leads economic cycle turns.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >20% drawdown from peak = bear market
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's value of the NASDAQ Composite is 25,914, reflecting a recovery from a recent low of 24,976 on July 25, which marked a significant decline from the peak of 27,086.81 on June 2. This upward movement over the past week indicates a reversal from the previous downward trend, suggesting a renewed investor confidence as the index approaches its recent highs. Currently, the NASDAQ Composite is within 5% of its peak, which reduces immediate recession risk, as sustained levels near historical highs typically signal economic strength rather than contraction. However, the market remains sensitive to potential volatility, especially if it experiences a drawdown exceeding 20% from its peak, which would trigger a bear market.
What is the NASDAQ?
The NASDAQ Composite is a market-capitalization weighted index of over 3,000 stocks listed on the NASDAQ exchange, heavily weighted toward technology and growth companies.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
NASDAQ is hyper-sensitive to interest rate expectations and risk appetite. Tech and growth stock selloffs often precede broader economic weakness as they signal reduced future growth expectations.
Historical Context
NASDAQ fell 78% during the dot-com bust (2000-2002), 56% during 2008, and 33% in 2022. Its recovery speed often signals the market's growth outlook.
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