S&P 500 Index — Stock Market Recession Indicator
Track the S&P 500 index in real time. Bear markets (20%+ decline) have preceded or coincided with every US recession since 1950.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >20% drawdown from peak = bear market
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's S&P 500 value is 7758, reflecting a strong upward trend since April, where it started at 7064.01, marking a significant increase of approximately 9.8% over the past 90 days. The index has consistently approached its recent peak, indicating robust market confidence and stability. This upward momentum suggests a low recession risk, as the market remains near its highs and has not shown signs of a downturn, with no significant drawdowns from peak levels. The current trajectory indicates continued economic resilience, further reducing the likelihood of an imminent recession.
What is the S&P 500?
The S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on US stock exchanges. It is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap US equities.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
The S&P 500 is a leading indicator — markets tend to decline 6-12 months before recessions begin. A 20%+ drawdown from peak defines a bear market, which has coincided with every post-war recession.
Historical Context
The S&P 500 fell 57% during the 2008 crisis, 34% during COVID (March 2020), and over 25% in 2022. Post-WWII, the average bear market drawdown is ~33%. Current levels near all-time highs make it a key metric to watch for reversal signals.
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Credit Spreads
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Emerging Markets
Track emerging market performance as a global recession indicator. EM weakness often precedes developed market downturns.
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