S&P 500 Index — Stock Market Recession Indicator
Track the S&P 500 index in real time. Bear markets (20%+ decline) have preceded or coincided with every US recession since 1950.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >20% drawdown from peak = bear market
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's S&P 500 value stands at 7023, marking a significant rise from a recent low of 6343.72 on March 31, 2026, reflecting a robust upward trend over the past few weeks. This increase of approximately 10.7% since the end of March indicates strong market recovery and confidence, as the index has approached its recent peak. Given this upward trajectory and the current value near historical highs, recession risk appears low at this moment. The market's resilience, particularly after a sharp decline earlier in the year, suggests that investor sentiment remains positive, reducing the likelihood of an imminent economic downturn.
What is the S&P 500?
The S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on US stock exchanges. It is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap US equities.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
The S&P 500 is a leading indicator — markets tend to decline 6-12 months before recessions begin. A 20%+ drawdown from peak defines a bear market, which has coincided with every post-war recession.
Historical Context
The S&P 500 fell 57% during the 2008 crisis, 34% during COVID (March 2020), and over 25% in 2022. Post-WWII, the average bear market drawdown is ~33%. Current levels near all-time highs make it a key metric to watch for reversal signals.
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