S&P 500 Index — Stock Market Recession Indicator
Track the S&P 500 index in real time. Bear markets (20%+ decline) have preceded or coincided with every US recession since 1950.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >20% drawdown from peak = bear market
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's S&P 500 value is 7757, which has shown a slight upward trend since mid-October, recovering from a low of 7659.44 on October 17. The index remains near its recent high of 7818.93 from October 7, indicating a stable market environment with no significant drawdown currently threatening a bear market. This trend suggests a low recession risk at present, as the index has consistently stayed above the recent lows and is approaching its peak, reflecting investor confidence and economic resilience. The absence of a 20% drawdown from the peak further reinforces this positive outlook.
What is the S&P 500?
The S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on US stock exchanges. It is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap US equities.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
The S&P 500 is a leading indicator — markets tend to decline 6-12 months before recessions begin. A 20%+ drawdown from peak defines a bear market, which has coincided with every post-war recession.
Historical Context
The S&P 500 fell 57% during the 2008 crisis, 34% during COVID (March 2020), and over 25% in 2022. Post-WWII, the average bear market drawdown is ~33%. Current levels near all-time highs make it a key metric to watch for reversal signals.
Related Indicators
DXY Dollar Index
Monitor the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Dollar strength can signal global stress and tightening financial conditions that precede recessions.
Credit Spreads
Track high-yield credit spreads (ICE BofA HY OAS). Widening spreads signal rising default risk and are a classic recession leading indicator.
Emerging Markets
Track emerging market performance as a global recession indicator. EM weakness often precedes developed market downturns.
Get Daily S&P 500 Alerts
Receive SMS and email alerts when this indicator changes status. Stay ahead of the market.