Temp Help Services vs JOLTS Quits Rate
Temp help services employment vs JOLTS quits rate — which leads labor market turns?
One-year comparison
Left axis: JOLTS Quits Rate (green) · Right axis: Temp Help Services (blue)
The analysis
Temp help employment is highly cyclical — employers adjust temp staffing before cutting permanent headcount. JOLTS quits rate measures voluntary leaves — workers feel confident enough to quit. Both lead nonfarm payrolls. Temp help tends to turn first at the aggregate level; quits rate is more sensitive to labor-market tightness.
Track the JOLTS quits rate — the best forward-looking labor market indicator. Falling quits signal workers are afraid to leave jobs, preceding recessions.
Track temporary help services employment — the earliest labor market recession signal. Temp jobs are the first to be cut when companies fear a slowdown.