JOLTS Quits Rate
Track the JOLTS quits rate — the best forward-looking labor market indicator. Falling quits signal workers are afraid to leave jobs, preceding recessions.
Current Value
Trigger Level: <2.0% = workers afraid to quit
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's JOLTS Quits Rate stands at 1.9%, a decline from a consistent 2.0% over the previous six weeks. This downward trend indicates a growing hesitance among workers to leave their jobs, suggesting increased job insecurity and a potential slowdown in labor market dynamics. The sustained drop below the 2.0% threshold signals heightened recession risk, as workers appear fearful of quitting, which typically reflects a lack of confidence in finding new employment opportunities. This trend may indicate underlying economic weakness that could contribute to a recessionary environment.
What is the JOLTS Quits Rate?
The JOLTS quits rate measures the percentage of workers who voluntarily leave their jobs each month. High quit rates indicate worker confidence in finding better opportunities; low rates signal fear and labor market deterioration.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
The quits rate is one of the best forward-looking labor market indicators. When workers stop quitting, it means they perceive fewer opportunities — a leading signal of rising unemployment and economic weakness.
Historical Context
The quits rate peaked at 3.0% in 2021-2022 during the 'Great Resignation' and has since fallen to 2.0%, below its pre-pandemic average. Similar declines preceded both the 2001 and 2008 recessions.
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