Temporary Help Services Employment
Track temporary help services employment — the earliest labor market recession signal. Temp jobs are the first to be cut when companies fear a slowdown.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Declining temp jobs = earliest labor signal
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the Temporary Help Services indicator stands at 2,480,000, showing a sharp decline. This drop suggests a significant reduction in temporary jobs, which is a leading signal of recession risk, indicating that the economy may be heading toward a downturn.
What is the Temp Help Services?
Temporary help services employment measures the number of workers employed through staffing agencies. These flexible labor arrangements are the first to be added during expansions and the first to be cut when businesses anticipate weakness.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
Temp employment is one of the earliest labor market signals because employers reduce temporary staff before laying off permanent workers. Declining temp employment has preceded every recession since the 1990s.
Historical Context
Temp employment peaked at 3.2M in 2022 and has been declining steadily. Similar multi-quarter declines occurred 6-12 months before the 2001 and 2008 recessions began.
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