Real-Time & High-Frequency Recession Indicators
Real-time indicators update weekly or daily and give you the fastest possible read on the economy. GDPNow, the Cass freight index, and the copper-gold ratio together provide a same-week snapshot of what the slower monthly data will eventually confirm.
Why this category matters
Monthly data lags by 4-8 weeks. Real-time indicators close that gap and let you react before the official numbers confirm the turn.
How to read it
Real-time indicators are volatile — use 4-week moving averages and confirm with at least one monthly signal.
Historical lead time
Real-time indicators coincide with or slightly lead the economy in real time. Their value is speed, not lead time.
Indicators in this category
Frequently asked questions
How accurate is GDPNow?
GDPNow's final estimate before BEA release is typically within 0.4 percentage points of the advance GDP print. It is most useful for direction and magnitude, not decimal-level precision.