US Recession History
Every post-war US recession, with causes, duration, what ended it, and the indicators that would have warned — so today’s signals can be read in historical context.
1973–1975 Oil Crisis Recession
The 1973–75 downturn was the first modern stagflation recession: a supply-side oil shock from the OPEC embargo collided with the end of Bretton Woods and already-elevated inflation. The S&P 500 lost roughly 48% peak-to-trough, unemployment rose from 4.6% to 9%, and inflation peaked above 12%.
1980 & 1981–1982 Double-Dip Recession
The early-1980s downturn was really two back-to-back recessions engineered by Paul Volcker to break inflation. The Fed funds rate peaked at 20% in 1981, the yield curve inverted deeply, and unemployment reached its highest level in the post-war era (pre-2020).
1990–1991 Gulf War Recession
A short, shallow recession driven by the savings-and-loan crisis, an oil-price spike from Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, and already-deteriorating confidence. Unemployment kept rising for a full year after the NBER-dated trough — the first 'jobless recovery.'
2001 Dot-Com Recession
The dot-com bust and 9/11 shock produced a mild GDP recession but a severe equity bear market. The S&P 500 lost 49% from its March 2000 peak, the Nasdaq lost 78%, and capex collapsed in the telecom and tech sectors.
2008–2009 Great Financial Crisis
The deepest US recession since the 1930s. A collapse in subprime mortgage credit triggered a banking panic, Lehman's September 2008 failure, and a global demand collapse. Unemployment doubled from 5% to 10%, the S&P 500 lost 57%, and the Fed took the policy rate to zero for the first time.
2020 Pandemic Recession
The shortest but deepest-ever US recession: a 2-month cycle triggered by government-mandated COVID lockdowns. GDP fell 10% in a single quarter, unemployment hit 14.8%, and the Fed expanded its balance sheet by $3 trillion inside 90 days.