SOS Recession Indicator
Track the SOS recession indicator — an improved Sahm Rule using weekly unemployment insurance claims. Correctly identified all 7 recessions since 1971.
Current Value
Trigger Level: 26-wk avg rises 0.2+ ppts above 52-wk low
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's SOS Recession Indicator stands at 1.20, remaining flat at this level since March 11, 2026. This consistent reading indicates a stable economic environment with low insured unemployment, suggesting no immediate recession risk as the indicator has not shown any upward movement beyond the 52-week low. Given the lack of change in the indicator over the past 75 days, the recession risk remains low, reinforcing a safe economic outlook. The absence of fluctuations signals continued economic stability, with no signs of impending downturns.
What is the SOS Indicator?
The SOS (Scavette-O'Trakoun-Sahm-style) indicator applies Sahm Rule methodology to weekly insured unemployment claims data. It signals recession when the 26-week moving average of the insured unemployment rate rises 0.2+ percentage points above its 52-week low.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
The SOS correctly identifies all seven recessions since 1971, produces fewer false positives than the original Sahm Rule, and signals recessions faster. It uses administrative data (insurance claims) rather than survey data, avoiding response rate bias.
Historical Context
Published by the Richmond Fed, the SOS addresses key limitations of the original Sahm Rule including declining CPS survey response rates and confounding labor supply factors from immigration changes.
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