SOS Recession Indicator
Track the SOS recession indicator — an improved Sahm Rule using weekly unemployment insurance claims. Correctly identified all 7 recessions since 1971.
Current Value
Trigger Level: Triggered = recession signal (weekly claims-based)
AI Analysis
As of February 22, 2026, the SOS Recession Indicator stands at 0.12, indicating an elevated recession risk. This "watch" status suggests that investors should closely monitor economic conditions, as the trigger for a recession signal has been activated based on weekly claims data.
What is the SOS Indicator?
The SOS (Scavette-O'Trakoun-Sahm-style) indicator applies Sahm Rule methodology to weekly insured unemployment claims data. It signals recession when the 26-week moving average of the insured unemployment rate rises 0.2+ percentage points above its 52-week low.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
The SOS correctly identifies all seven recessions since 1971, produces fewer false positives than the original Sahm Rule, and signals recessions faster. It uses administrative data (insurance claims) rather than survey data, avoiding response rate bias.
Historical Context
Published by the Richmond Fed, the SOS addresses key limitations of the original Sahm Rule including declining CPS survey response rates and confounding labor supply factors from immigration changes.
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