SOS Recession Indicator
Track the SOS recession indicator — an improved Sahm Rule using weekly unemployment insurance claims. Correctly identified all 7 recessions since 1971.
Current Value
Trigger Level: 26-wk avg rises 0.2+ ppts above 52-wk low
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's SOS Recession Indicator value is 1.20, which has remained flat at this level since late 2025, with no significant fluctuations in the past six months. This stability, alongside a low insured unemployment rate, indicates a low risk of recession, as the indicator has not approached the upper threshold of 1.3 seen in October 2025. The consistent value of 1.20 suggests that the economy is currently in a safe zone, with no signs of deterioration or impending recession risks. The lack of upward movement in the indicator reinforces the notion that economic conditions are stable and supportive of continued growth.
What is the SOS Indicator?
The SOS (Scavette-O'Trakoun-Sahm-style) indicator applies Sahm Rule methodology to weekly insured unemployment claims data. It signals recession when the 26-week moving average of the insured unemployment rate rises 0.2+ percentage points above its 52-week low.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
The SOS correctly identifies all seven recessions since 1971, produces fewer false positives than the original Sahm Rule, and signals recessions faster. It uses administrative data (insurance claims) rather than survey data, avoiding response rate bias.
Historical Context
Published by the Richmond Fed, the SOS addresses key limitations of the original Sahm Rule including declining CPS survey response rates and confounding labor supply factors from immigration changes.
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