Dow Jones Industrial Average — Blue-Chip Recession Gauge
Track the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This 30-stock blue-chip index signals broad industrial health and has historically preceded economic downturns.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >20% drawdown from peak = bear market
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 48,978, reflecting a slight decline from its recent peak of 50,188 on February 10, 2026. Over the past month, the index has experienced a downward trend, dropping approximately 4.4% from that peak, indicating a potential reversal in momentum as it has fluctuated between 48,804 and 50,188. This trend suggests a moderate increase in recession risk, as the recent decline from the highs indicates weakening investor confidence. The current value remains above the historical midpoint of 48,461.93, but the downward trajectory raises concerns about sustained economic strength.
What is the Dow Jones?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index of 30 prominent US companies. It is one of the oldest and most-watched stock market indicators in the world.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
As a barometer of industrial and blue-chip corporate health, DJIA declines signal weakening economic confidence. Its composition of mature companies makes it particularly relevant for assessing cyclical risk.
Historical Context
The DJIA fell below 7,000 during the 2008 crisis from a peak of 14,000. It crashed to 18,500 during COVID from 29,500. The index crossing 40,000 in 2024 represents a significant valuation milestone.
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