Dow Jones Industrial Average — Blue-Chip Recession Gauge
Track the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This 30-stock blue-chip index signals broad industrial health and has historically preceded economic downturns.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >20% drawdown from peak = bear market
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 52,215, reflecting a slight decline of 1.3% from the previous day but remaining well within the recent range of 50,906 to 54,349. Over the past three months, the index has experienced significant volatility, peaking at 54,349 in early August before a downward trend began, with a notable drop to 50,906 in early October. This trend indicates a heightened recession risk, as the index has fallen 6.5% from its peak and is currently hovering near the lower end of its recent range. The recent decline suggests a potential loss of investor confidence, which could signal underlying economic weaknesses.
What is the Dow Jones?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index of 30 prominent US companies. It is one of the oldest and most-watched stock market indicators in the world.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
As a barometer of industrial and blue-chip corporate health, DJIA declines signal weakening economic confidence. Its composition of mature companies makes it particularly relevant for assessing cyclical risk.
Historical Context
The DJIA fell below 7,000 during the 2008 crisis from a peak of 14,000. It crashed to 18,500 during COVID from 29,500. The index crossing 40,000 in 2024 represents a significant valuation milestone.
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