Dow Jones Industrial Average — Blue-Chip Recession Gauge
Track the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This 30-stock blue-chip index signals broad industrial health and has historically preceded economic downturns.
Current Value
Trigger Level: >20% drawdown from peak = bear market
Historical Trend
AI Analysis
Today's value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 48,579, reflecting a slight increase from 48,463.72 yesterday, and a recovery from a recent low of 45,166.64 on March 30. Over the past month, the index has shown a general upward trend, bouncing back from a significant decline that saw it drop nearly 10% from its peak of 50,188.14 in February. This upward movement suggests a reduced recession risk in the near term, as the market is stabilizing after a period of volatility. However, with the current value still below the recent highs, investors should remain cautious, as a drawdown of more than 20% from the peak would signal a bear market.
What is the Dow Jones?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index of 30 prominent US companies. It is one of the oldest and most-watched stock market indicators in the world.
Why It Matters for Recession Risk
As a barometer of industrial and blue-chip corporate health, DJIA declines signal weakening economic confidence. Its composition of mature companies makes it particularly relevant for assessing cyclical risk.
Historical Context
The DJIA fell below 7,000 during the 2008 crisis from a peak of 14,000. It crashed to 18,500 during COVID from 29,500. The index crossing 40,000 in 2024 represents a significant valuation milestone.
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