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54 recession and macro indicators from FRED, Treasury, and financial APIs — analyzed daily. The same signals Wall Street quant desks monitor, in your pocket. Free to start.
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54 indicators. 8 categories.
Zero noise.
From NBER core recession signals to real-time freight data — every indicator that has correctly predicted recessions since 1970, organized for daily decision-making.
Primary Recession Signals
Sahm Rule, unemployment rate, industrial production, real personal income, JOLTS quits rate, and temp help services — the NBER's core indicators.
Yield Curve & Market Signals
2s10s and 3m10y spreads, VIX, NFCI, copper-gold ratio, NY Fed recession probability, and credit spreads. The quant's toolkit.
Conference Board LEI & GDP
The 3Ds rule (diffusion, depth, duration) plus Atlanta Fed GDPNow for real-time GDP tracking. When both flash red, act fast.
Housing & Construction
Building permits and housing starts — residential investment leads the business cycle by 3-5 quarters. The earliest physical-economy signal.
Consumer Credit Stress
Savings rate, credit card delinquencies, SLOOS lending standards, and debt service ratio. Know when consumers are tapped out.
Business Activity
Corporate profits, ISM Manufacturing PMI, NFIB small business optimism, and inventory-to-sales ratio. The pulse of the real economy.
Real-Time / High-Frequency
Freight index, M2 money supply, ON RRP facility, and SOS recession indicator. Weekly and daily signals for the fastest edge.
Stock Screener (Pro)
Daily scan for stocks below 200 EMA with RSI <30 and P/E <15. Value dividend picks with P/E <12 near support. Sector rotation signals.
Daily Email Briefing (Free)
Concise, actionable morning email briefings with all 54 indicators. SMS alerts available on the Pulse plan.
Threshold Alerts
Instant notification when any indicator crosses a critical threshold. Know the moment the Sahm Rule triggers or the VIX spikes.
AI Risk Assessment (Pulse)
Multi-model recession risk score combining all 54 indicators into a single probability estimate. Available on Pulse and above.
Real-Time Dashboard
All 54 indicators at a glance, organized by category. Financial-terminal aesthetic designed for quick daily check-ins. Free forever.
40 indicators. Real-time signals.
Live data from FRED, Treasury, and financial APIs — updated daily.
Primary Indicators
Secondary Indicators
Housing & Construction
Business Activity
Consumer Credit Stress
Market Signals
Liquidity
Real-Time / High-Frequency
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AI-Powered Recession Reports
Recession Risk 46/100 — March 26, 2026
Base-case recession risk over the next 90 days is elevated but not high because the labor-market trigger set (Sahm Rule) is clearly not firing (0.27–0.30 vs 0.50) while initial claims remain low (~213k in the first week of March). The yield curve is no longer inverted (2s10s positive and steepening), which historically reduces near-term recession odds, but it also fits a late-cycle pattern where steepening occurs via front-end rate cuts as growth cools. The most credible warning cluster is leading indicators and cyclicals: Conference Board LEI is flagged as a recession-style signal in your tracker, temp-help employment is in sharp decline, and freight indicators are weakening—consistent with a goods-side slowdown. Financial conditions are not yet “stress” (HY OAS ~3.2%, NFCI still negative), but pockets of vulnerability (large bank unrealized losses, depleted ON RRP buffer, rising consumer delinquencies) raise tail-risk of a confidence/liquidity shock.
Recession Risk 44/100 — March 25, 2026
Recession risk over the next 90 days is elevated but not high because the labor-market trigger set remains unbroken: the Sahm Rule is still well below 0.50 (0.27 per your tracker) and initial claims remain low (205K for the week ending March 14, 2026). However, growth is visibly decelerating: February 2026 payrolls fell by 92,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, while goods-side leading indicators (temporary help and freight) are in clear contraction. Financial conditions are not yet restrictive enough to force a near-term recession (Chicago Fed NFCI about -0.51 for the week ending March 6), but credit stress is creeping higher (HY OAS around the low-300s bps per your tracker) and volatility is elevated (VIX mid-20s). The main macro tail-risk is stagflationary pressure from the Iran war shock (notably a hot February PPI at +0.7% m/m), which can delay Fed easing and compress real activity simultaneously.
Recession Risk 38/100 — March 24, 2026
Near-term recession risk is MODERATE because the highest-weight real-time trigger (Sahm Rule) remains clearly untriggered at 0.27, while layoffs are still historically low with initial claims at 205k for the week ending March 14, 2026. The yield curve is no longer flashing recession (2s10s positive ~0.57% on March 12, 2026), which materially reduces imminent 90-day recession odds. However, growth is running close to stall speed (Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q1 2026 downshifting to ~2.1% as of March 6, 2026) and labor demand is cooling (February 2026 payrolls fell ~92k and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%). The balance of evidence points to a late-cycle slowdown and rising downside tail risk (temp help deterioration, weak sentiment, higher volatility), but not a high-probability recession within the next 90 days.
Recession Risk 44/100 — March 23, 2026
US recession risk over the next 90 days is ELEVATED but not high because the two most reliable real-time triggers (Sahm Rule and initial claims) are not flashing. The key deterioration is in forward-looking and cyclical indicators: Conference Board LEI has been negative with a recession-signal framework active, temporary help is in a sharp downswing, and freight is weak—classic late-cycle behavior. Labor market momentum has softened materially: February 2026 payrolls fell by 92,000 and unemployment rose to 4.4%, though weekly claims remain low near ~205K. Financial conditions are not crisis-like, but high yield spreads have drifted wider (~320 bps) and volatility is elevated, consistent with rising tail risk rather than imminent contraction.
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Real-time recession dashboard — no credit card required
- 54 recession & macro indicators tracked
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- Daily email recession briefing
- Indicator status, signals & trends
- Historical context for every reading
- Daily recession risk score
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Frequently asked questions
Everything you need to know about recession indicators and RecessionPulse.
RecessionPulse monitors 54 recession and macro indicators across 8 categories: Primary (Sahm Rule, unemployment, industrial production, JOLTS quits, temp help, SOS indicator), Secondary (ISM PMI, consumer sentiment, fed funds rate, initial claims), Housing (building permits, housing starts, new home sales), Business Activity (corporate profits, NFIB, inventory-to-sales, retail sales, durable goods, capacity utilization), Credit Stress (savings rate, credit card delinquency, SLOOS, debt service ratio, consumer credit, US National Debt, Debt-to-GDP ratio), Market (yield curves, VIX, NFCI, copper-gold ratio, gold-silver ratio, credit spreads, DXY, NY Fed & JPM recession probability, emerging markets, S&P 500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, S&P 500/GDP, DJIA/GDP, NASDAQ/GDP Buffett Indicator variants, S&P 500 P/E, DJIA P/E, NASDAQ P/E ratios), Liquidity (M2 money supply, ON RRP, bank unrealized losses, US interest expense), and Real-Time (freight index, GDPNow).
Yes. The full dashboard with all 54 indicators, signals, trends, historical context, and daily email briefings is completely free — no credit card required. The Pulse plan ($6.99/mo) adds AI recession risk assessment, SMS alerts, and threshold notifications. Pulse Pro ($9.99/mo) adds the stock screener with value picks, sector rotation signals, and portfolio defense positioning.
The Sahm Rule identifies recessions when the 3-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises 0.50 percentage points or more above its low from the previous 12 months. Created by economist Claudia Sahm, it has correctly signaled every recession since 1970 in real time. RecessionPulse tracks this indicator daily.
Yield curve inversion occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. The 2-year/10-year Treasury spread inverting has preceded every US recession since 1955, with only one false signal. Historically, recessions follow 6–18 months after un-inversion (when the curve steepens back to normal). RecessionPulse tracks both the 2s10s and 3m10y spreads.
The 3Ds Rule evaluates three conditions in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Depth (6-month growth rate below -4.3%), Diffusion (more than half of components declining), and Duration (sustained decline over multiple months). When all three trigger simultaneously, historical recession probability exceeds 85%.
Tier 1 (NBER Core & Leading): Building permits, real personal income, industrial production, JOLTS quits rate, NFCI, NY Fed recession probability, and temp help services. Tier 2 (Business & Consumer): Corporate profits, savings rate, VIX, GDPNow, credit card delinquency, NFIB small business optimism, and copper-gold ratio, and gold-silver ratio. Tier 3 (Confirming & High-Frequency): Freight index, housing starts, inventory-to-sales ratio, SLOOS lending standards, SOS recession indicator, and debt service ratio.
RecessionPulse has three tiers: Free (full dashboard with all 54 indicators plus daily email briefings), Pulse at $6.99/month (adds AI recession risk assessment, SMS alerts, and threshold notifications), and Pulse Pro at $9.99/month (adds stock screener alerts, value picks, sector rotation signals, and portfolio defense positioning). Cancel anytime. No contracts.
No. RecessionPulse is strictly an informational service. We aggregate publicly available economic data and present it in a clear format. Nothing we provide constitutes investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
The quants are watching. Are you?
Every recession in the last 50 years was preceded by the exact indicators we track. 54 signals across 8 categories — free to access. The question isn't if the next downturn is coming — it's when. Be positioned before it arrives.
Free forever. Paid plans from $6.99/mo. Not investment advice.